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Real Estate Cycle in the Czech Republic and Office Capitalization Rate Forecasts
Zelenka, Radek ; Streblov, Pavel (advisor) ; Horváth, Roman (referee)
The presented study describes commercial real estate markets with focus on office sector. We identify the capitalization rate (investment yield) as one of the fundamental variables in the commercial property valuation. Based on historical office investment yield observations and various econometric models we predict the office capitalization rate development in the Czech Republic. We use data of the United Kingdom, Ireland and Sweden to identify common yield trend especially with respect to their real estate crises dating in 1990s which indicate similar features to real estate crisis in 2008-2010. As explanatory variables for the econometric models (ARIMA, OLS, VAR) we use financial and macroeconomic variables. We use the OLS models to identify optimal set of explanatory variables, which we than apply in VAR models. On dataset of the comparable countries we compare the fitness of the VAR and ARIMA models, the best variants are used for prediction of the Czech office yield. We then improve our forecasts by implementing exogenous forecasts of macroeconomic variables used in the models. Majority of our predictions forecast a slow decrease of the prime office capitalization factor in next three years (2011 - 2014) in magnitude of 0.25% - 1.25% (to 6.25% - 5.75%).
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The comparison of Russian, Kazakhstanian and Belarusian stock exchanges
Almenova, Ariadna ; Veselá, Jitka (advisor) ; Kábrt, Tomáš (referee)
The topic of the bachelor thesis is the comparison of stock exhanges within the post- Soviet countries: Russia, Kazakhstan and Belarus. In the first part of the work, the stock exchanges are compared in terms of history, organization structure and membership conditions. The following part is focused on comparing such characteristics as trading methods, the market segmentation and trading settlement according to the individual stock exchange. The rest of the research is dedicated to the analysis of the trade volumes, the number of securities issued and the market capitalization. Furthermore, the last chapter discusses the indeces and analyses its development over the time period.
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Real Estate Cycle in the Czech Republic and Office Capitalization Rate Forecasts
Zelenka, Radek ; Streblov, Pavel (advisor) ; Horváth, Roman (referee)
The presented study describes commercial real estate markets with focus on office sector. We identify the capitalization rate (investment yield) as one of the fundamental variables in the commercial property valuation. Based on historical office investment yield observations and various econometric models we predict the office capitalization rate development in the Czech Republic. We use data of the United Kingdom, Ireland and Sweden to identify common yield trend especially with respect to their real estate crises dating in 1990s which indicate similar features to real estate crisis in 2008-2010. As explanatory variables for the econometric models (ARIMA, OLS, VAR) we use financial and macroeconomic variables. We use the OLS models to identify optimal set of explanatory variables, which we than apply in VAR models. On dataset of the comparable countries we compare the fitness of the VAR and ARIMA models, the best variants are used for prediction of the Czech office yield. We then improve our forecasts by implementing exogenous forecasts of macroeconomic variables used in the models. Majority of our predictions forecast a slow decrease of the prime office capitalization factor in next three years (2011 - 2014) in magnitude of 0.25% - 1.25% (to 6.25% - 5.75%).
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Forecasting models of office capitalization rate in the Czech Republic
Zelenka, Radek ; Streblov, Pavel (advisor) ; Horváth, Roman (referee)
The presented study describes commercial real estate markets with focus on office sector. We identify the capitalization rate (investment yield) as one of the fundamental elements in the commercial property valuation. Based on historical office investment yield observations and various econometric models we predict the office capitalization rate development in the Czech Republic. We use data of the United Kingdom, Ireland and Sweden to identify common yield trend especially with respect to their real estate crises in 1990s that embody features similar to the real estate crisis in 2008-2010. As explanatory variables for the econometric models (ARIMA, OLS, VAR) we use financial and macroeconomic variables. We use the OLS models to identify the optimal set of explanatory variables, to be applied in VAR models. On dataset of the comparable countries we compare the goodness of fit of the VAR and ARIMA models. The best variants are then used for the prediction of the Czech office yield. Lastly, we improve our results by implementing exogenous forecasts of macroeconomic variables used in the models. Majority of our predictions forecast a slow decrease of the capitalization rate in next two years (2010-2012) in the magnitude of 0.25% - 1% (to 6.25%-6%).
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Modern attitudes to DCF model in comparison with classical attitudes
Klečka, Ondřej ; Veselá, Jitka (advisor) ; Vacek, Vladislav (referee)
Diploma thesis covers the topic about different attitudes to DCF valuation. The first part is an introduction into CAPM theory and a multifactor French-Fama model. This part also indicates different views on financial assets and analyzes an issue of setting discount rates, especially the risk-free rate and equity risk premium. The second part of this paper applies the theory into valuation of Microsoft, GAP and Telefónica O2. There are elaborated forecasts of the financial statements and free cash flows (FCFCE, FCFU), the discount rate composition and analyses of the factors HML and SMB. At the end, there are performed various valuations, which results are discussed together with a development of real market prices.
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ANALYSIS AND COMPARISON OF SELECTED CENTRAL EUROPEAN CAPITAL MARKETS SINCE 90S UP TO THE PRESENT
Kotyza, Jonáš ; Šimíček, Petr (advisor) ; Loužek, Marek (referee)
This thesis focuses on analysis and mutual comparison of capital markets of the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Poland and Hungary, particularly on their development since the 90s. In the theoretical part is emphasized the importance of the stock exchange establishment in the contemporary economic system. Furthermore, this section focuses on the development of the global and then local stock exchange system. All selected economies were significantly affected by the implementation of the socialist regime and it was necessary to consolidate local capital markets. The analytical part examines differing form and actual importance of selected entities. The main conclusions of this part of the work are that the Polish capital market significantly dominates, Czech and Hungarian capital market are distinguished by similar levels of their capital markets and Slovak market is completely unimportant in the Central European context.
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Valuation of AAA Auto Group N. V.
Tatár, Dávid ; Kislingerová, Eva (advisor) ; Synek, Miloslav (referee)
The objective of diploma thesis is about to define a value of a international group AAA Auto Group N. V. which operates on the czech, slovak and russian market with used cars and analysis of an ability to increase shareholder's value in the future. It is structured as an expert opinion. It defines purpose, subject and exact date of valuation, valuation method's overview, strategic (macro and micro) and financial group analysis on the main markets. Consolidated financial plan was created as a prediction with a quick financial analysis. Group was evaluated by three discounted-based method - free cash flow to firm, free cash flow to equity, discounted economic value added as they were compared to market capitalization method. Final group value AAA Auto Group N. V. to 7th of December 2012 was defined by free cash flow to equity method and compared to market capitalization method, which is determined by the market.
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Evaluation of Innovation Impact on Apple Inc. Successful Performance
Sedláčková, Hana ; Smrčka, Luboš (advisor) ; Oplestil, Vojtěch (referee)
The main objective of this thesis is to study the impact of Apple Inc. innovation activities on its successful performance. Specification of this goal implies the existence of a direct relationship between the development of company's net sales and the development of its market value. The thesis is divided into theoretical and practical part where the theoretical part is focused on the issues of invention and innovation, the innovation process and, last but not least, the link between innovation, strategic management and marketing. The theoretical part also defines the understanding of the term "successful performance of the company" in accordance with the main objective of this thesis. The practical part is focused on the application of gathered knowledge. It aims to assess the impact of innovation activities on the development of Apple Inc. net sales and to analyze the competitive position of its major product categories in the context of individual markets. Furthermore, the practical part is focused on Apple Inc. market capitalization, as a defined indicator of the company's success, its historical position and comparison with major competitors in the technology industry. Applying the method of linear regression analysis, the final section of the thesis evaluates the existence of the relationship described above and provides a possible product innovation charter of Apple Inc.
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The Impact of External Events on the Market Capitalization of Companies
Zelenka, Jaroslav ; Krabec, Tomáš (advisor) ; Veselá, Jitka (referee)
This diploma thesis analyses the relationship between external events (i.e. events with impact within the Czech Republic which cannot be influenced by local firms) and the value of market capitalization of companies on Prague Stock Exchange. The analysis of the 1994 to 2012 time series showed that even the most important political, economical and other events specific for the Czech Republic only have marginal impacts on values of companies on the Czech stock market. The impacts of corporate events proved to have much stronger such effects. The most advisable investment recommendation thus seems to be to ignore external events when deciding in which stocks to invest.
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Stock Portfolio Construction and Fundamentals
Bastin, Jan ; Musílek, Petr (advisor) ; Witzany, Jiří (referee)
The final thesis deals with the construction of a stock portfolio. The traditional portfolio theory models of Markowitz and Sharpe and anomalies based on fundamentals are shown and applied in Germany. In the first part, portfolio theory and fundamentals are explained. The mathematical model is demonstrated in the second part. Empirical results are shown in the last part.
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